WSDA evaluates drought impact on Yakima Basin agriculture

Kim Vaughn

Communications

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought events, potentially impacting our environment, including agriculture and water resources. Droughts and extreme weather events can have profound effects on the agricultural economy, leading to reduced crop yields, livestock losses, increased production costs, and disruptions in food supply chains. 

Drought Assessment Tool (DAT)

In 2015, the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) conducted an assessment to quantify drought impacts on agricultural revenue. This was after 85% of Washington State experienced “extreme drought status” in August 2015. Based on this assessment, WSDA recommended a clear economic foundation for future analyses. 

To improve understanding of drought impacts, WSDA contracted with the University of California, Merced to develop a drought assessment tool to model agricultural production and water use in agriculturally-dominated watersheds in the state.  

The tool models agricultural production and water use to estimate the economic impacts of drought at the watershed and statewide levels. In the model, WSDA can modify irrigation water, cropland, prices, and yields to evaluate the potential impacts of drought events and policy decisions. 

The DAT was used in a study to evaluate two drought scenarios in the Yakima Basin. The study focuses on irrigators who do not receive their full water supply during drought, also known as proratables. 

The two scenarios modeled are: 

1. 70% of normal irrigation water supply, and 

2. 50% of normal irrigation water supply. 

The two water supply scenarios were selected to evaluate impact mitigation associated with the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (YBIP) implementation. A primary driver of the YBIP is to increase surface water storage to offset expected losses of snowpack due to climate change. 

One of the YBIP’s goals is to supply proratable water users with 70% of their full water allocation during drought events. The supply scenarios are used to understand the economic benefits of ensuring 70% water supply in water-short years. During the most recent snowpack deficit drought of 2015, the end-of-season allocation to proratable water users was 47%. By comparing 50% and 70% water supply, we can estimate the economic losses that might be avoided if the YBIP goal of 70% water supply is met. 

Model results

Download this infographic.

The two scenarios, 70% and 50% of water supply, were evaluated to understand the potential impacts of drought in the Yakima Basin. The model indicates that reducing water supply results in varying levels of impact on the producer’s revenue, employment, and the region’s economy. 

• In the 70% water supply scenario:
• Total producer revenue decreased by 7.3% to 19.4% 
• $161 million to $424 million decrease 
  
  
• In the 50% water supply scenario:
• Total producer revenue decreased by 18.1% to 30.4% 
• $397 million to $668 million decrease 

The model results estimate significantly higher impacts on producer revenue at 50% water supply as compared to 70% water supply. For example, at 70% water supply apple producers experienced revenue losses between 4% and 18% whereas at 50% water supply, apple producers experienced losses in revenue between 10% and 27%.

The losses associated with reducing water supply to 50% are significant. For example, grape producers are projected to lose between 77% to 88% in revenue. A 50% water supply scenario could result in losses (to the whole economy) as high as $1.1 billion in revenue and up to 10,309 jobs.

Conclusion

The YBIP aims to increase surface water storage and enhance water conservation to improve drought resiliency. One of the YBIP’s goals is to provide proratable water users with a 70% water supply during drought events. 

To understand the potential impact of reaching the YBIP’s water supply goals, WSDA employed the DAT model to compare the impacts of 50% and 70% water supply scenarios. 

Estimated losses at 50% water supply are between 58% and 146% higher than estimated losses at 70% water supply. These results indicate that reaching the YBIP’s goal to ensure 70% water supply during drought events could reduce economic losses by up to $406 million and retain over 3,700 jobs reliant on agriculture. Implementing the YBIP could reduce total economic losses by 11% across all metrics. 

The reduction in losses estimated through these scenarios demonstrates the value of the investments made by local, state, and federal governments. If the YBIP water supply projects are not implemented, additional losses to revenue, value-added, and jobs are anticipated. With drought events expected to increase in frequency and severity under future climate scenarios, integrated water management solutions are needed to enhance drought resiliency. The YBIP and similar strategies in other basins have the potential to significantly reduce drought impacts to the agricultural economy. 

Download the full report here. 

It’s dry. Really, really dry.

Amber Betts, WSDA Communications

Washington's wheat crop is

expected to show reduction in yield

due to the drought this year. 

It all comes down to one fact: If it grows, it needs water. Water that our agriculture producers in Washington state simply do not have enough of this year.

In what looked like a promising year for snowpack, agriculture producers around Washington were hopeful this year would see adequate water supply resulting in healthy crop yields and a productive year. The spring season came and left with little to no rain, causing great concern especially for dryland producers.

Dryland producers are primarily in Eastern Washington state and are without irrigation to rely on to water their crops or feed their animals.

Our agricultural growers are telling WSDA that they are already experiencing yield reduction and other effects that could reduce revenues. Livestock producers also report having to buy feed sooner than expected, likely at a higher price tag, because grazing lands are drying up.

At WSDA, we work to ensure our federal and state partners hear the concerns of our ag producers. And the message was heard loud and clear.

In late June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a federal drought declaration for 14 primary and 10 contiguous counties in Washington. USDA’s drought monitor tool continued to monitor Washington state’s water supply and on July 6 triggered seven more primary and four more contiguous counties as disaster areas due to drought.

Then, last week, on July 14, Washington’s Department of Ecology declared a drought emergency for most of the state.

Declaring a drought means more than just acknowledging the hardship our producers are facing, it opens up opportunities for our agriculture partners to access programs, services, and funding to help alleviate the hardship caused by drought.

Ecology is able to expedite emergency drought permits, process temporary transfers of water rights, hold public education workshops and provide funding assistance for public entities, including irrigation districts. Ecology is currently in the process of identifying needs and potential funding.

The federal declaration means dryland farmers in the counties the disaster was declared allows for emergency loans that can be used to help the producer recover from this drought. Loans can be used for replacing equipment or livestock, or to reorganize the farming operation, or to refinance other debts. USDA’s Farm Service Agency also manages relief programs including the livestock forage program, where producers are eligible for payments to assist in buying feed for their livestock and the tree assistance program, as well as crop insurance.

If you think you may qualify for federal assistance, visit USDA’s disaster assistance discovery tool. You can also visit WSDA’s drought information webpage for more on available resources.

The 2015 drought – an early look at impacts

Derek Sandison
WSDA Director 

Washington’s 2015 drought hurt farmers across the state. But by how much? Finding an answer to that question is the goal of a WSDA study funded by the Department of Ecology.

Our agreement with Ecology, signed in November, requires a full and complete report by December 2016. The agreement also called for a preliminary report to be issued Dec. 31, 2015. Last week, we posted the “Interim Report: 2015 Drought and Agriculture” on our website.

As expected, researchers with WSDA’s Natural Resource Assessment Section found that the effect of drought on growing operations depended on a number of factors, including the type of crop, the crop’s farm gate value and, of course, the location of the farm itself.

Impacts in the hundreds of millions

It would be a mistake to tally up the economic losses estimated at this point and declare that figure to be the sum of the financial hit farmers, ranchers and other sectors of our agriculture industry suffered. That’s because at this early stage of our research, just a
handful of commodities had data we could use for this very preliminary assessment. Some of our state’s top commodities are not reflected in this report, such as potatoes, horticulture or livestock.

Still, it’s clear that economic losses are easily in the hundreds of millions of dollars in certain agricultural sectors and the number will surely grow. It will be months yet before the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service releases revenue figures for the 2015 Washington ag industry.

As the report writers state, “Regardless of precipitation or snow accumulation in the current water year, areas significantly impacted by the 2015 drought will continue to see yield or quality impacts in the 2016 crop.”

So, while the recent rainfall in Western Washington and the snowfall in the Cascades and Olympic mountains may make it seem like our state’s drought is over, for those in agriculture, the effects of the 2015 drought are just now beginning to be seen.